China student flows to us forecast to fall – study – university world news dollar vs pound exchange rate

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The flow of students from China to universities in America is forecast to fall between now and 2015 but rise to Canada and Australia, according to student mobility forecasts by the British Council.

Visa changes, currency fluctuations and changing trade flows between China and other countries could have an impact on overall numbers, according to a series of Students in Motion studies just released by the British Council.


"Overall, there will be a slight increase in the number of students from China wanting to study in these countries," said Janet Illieva, head of research and intelligence at the British Council in Hong Kong.

Students from China are forecast to reach around 300,000 to the US, Canada and Australia by 2012, compared to around 270,000 now euro to usd exchange rate. Forecasts for Chinese student to the UK have not yet been released.

According to econometric models drawn up by the Economist Intelligence Unit for the British Council, the number of students in the US from China will fall slightly from 127,000 in 2010 to around 120,000 in 2015.

But this will be offset by the number in Canada rising from 51,300 in 2008 to 68,100 by 2015 – an absolute increase of more than 30%, while Australia could sees a rise from 91,600 students from China in 2010 to around 110,800 in 2015.

Australia has seen the greatest increase in enrolments from China, to 21.5% of internationally mobile Chinese students choosing Australia in 2010, up from 6% in 2000 aud usd yahoo finance. This is set to grow by just 1% by 2015.

Despite being the preferred destination for Chinese students, and China’s own booming economy, America has "actually struggled over most of the last decade to attract more students to the country," the US study said.

Using econometric models that take into account various economic factors, the studies forecast that the US share of Chinese students studying abroad could decrease from around 30% in the last decade and over 26% in 2010 to around 24% in 2015.

This is mainly due to rising tuition fees in the US as well as deteriorating trade between the two countries commodity meaning in tamil. Bilateral trade has been found to be a significant predictor of overseas student flows in this and other studies.

"Increasing numbers of students follow the trade route," Illieva said. "Studies have shown that as soon as there is an increase in trade, a year or two years later, the number of students going to these countries increase binary to ascii. It could be that trade is a proxy for relevance – students go to countries which are important for them."

According to Illieva, past constraints in domestic higher education provision meant families with the income to send students abroad did so decimal word problems 6th grade. But other factors have now come into play.

"The university enrolment rate in China has grown from 6% in 1994 to 24% in 2010 farm futures market prices. This is a paramount increase of four times the number of students words to binary. But the interesting thing is that the proportion of students studying abroad has remained stable over the two decades, around 1.6% or 1.5% of the total enrolled at home, and it is predicted to decrease marginally by 2015 to 1.4%," Illieva told University World News.

Paradoxically, "the wealthier a country gets, the more likely students are to stay at home ntd to usd. As the US, UK and European countries go into deep recession, and China is doing so well, prospective students feel they can do better in the home economy and prefer to stay at home to keep in touch with the opportunities of the domestic economy," Illieva said.

Meanwhile the relative cost of a university education abroad, which is also determined by the value of the renminbi (Chinese Yuan) to the US dollar, "will have a big impact on determining the future flow of students to the US," the report on Chinese students in the US said.

"A stronger Chinese currency vis-à-vis the US dollar would make study in the US relatively cheaper and so would be expected to lead to an increase in Chinese student numbers in the US."

Between July 2005 and the end of 2010 the renminbi was allowed to appreciate against the US dollar by around 25%. "This represents a substantial saving for the parents of Chinese students struggling to afford the full cost of an overseas education for their only child," the study said.

"Exchange rates are much more important for students from Malaysia and India, while Chinese students are much more susceptible to tuition fee rises pound exchange rate today. This is partly because the renminbi has a managed exchange rate. It is not market-set so does not fluctuate so much," Illieva said.

However, Illieva acknowledged that immigration changes and other perceptions that are difficult to quantify such as student safety are not represented in the forecast models.

A current ‘bulge’ of students from China in the US is seen as the result of more relaxed visa restrictions, which had been tightened after 9/11. "The [visa] bottleneck has now been removed. We expect that next year student flows [to the US to] normalise at a slightly lower level," Illieva said.

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