Currency wars _


Donald Trump has threatened to overturn two decades of US economic policy by questioning the strong value of the dollar, raising fears that his presidency could set off a new round of currency wars between the world’s major economies.

On Monday the president-elect appeared to break from the longstanding “strong dollar” policy of successive administrations, declaring that the currency was too high and that this was preventing US companies from competing with Chinese counterparts. Oil meaning in bible “It’s killing us,” he said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal.

PG View: Let’s be honest, our so-called “strong dollar” policy has been a farce. Iqd to usd exchange rate The greenback is in long-term secular decline, like pretty much every other fiat currency. Gold usd Only within the last several years has the dollar really appreciated; largely as a result of divergent monetary policy. Crude oil futures marketwatch Those gains are eroding the competitiveness of U.S. Python binary corporations, which will likely put trade policy high on the Trump administration’s agenda. World markets futures Speaking in Davos, an advisor to the President-elect, suggest Mr. Ringgit to usd converter Trump is likely to tear-up the rulebook on trade.

02-Sep (Bloomberg) — China’s yuan has doubled its share of global currency trading in the three years through April 2016, according to the latest triennial survey conducted by the Bank for International Settlements.

The yuan’s average daily turnover rose to $202 billion in April from $120 billion in the same month of 2013, boosting its ratio of global foreign-exchange trading to 4 percent from the previous 2 percent, the survey results show. 1 usd to thb That puts the currency in eighth place overall. 1 usd in euro Dollar-yuan became the sixth-most traded currency pair, advancing from ninth place in 2013, BIS said, while the yuan overtook the Mexican peso as the most actively traded emerging-market currency.

…“China’s internationalization agenda and official efforts to encourage greater yuan usage” have contributed to the increase in yuan trading, Eddie Cheung, a foreign-exchange strategist at Standard Chartered Plc, said before the release of the BIS data. Convert rmb to usd “Investor accessibility to yuan products and currency volatility are the main obstacles now.”

The Bank for International Settlements report comes a month before the yuan is scheduled to join the dollar, euro, British pound and Japanese yen in the International Monetary Fund’s basket of global reserves.

China has been trying to increase the yuan’s global usage, setting up clearing banks around the world and issuing bonds denominated in the currency in London. Nis to usd On Aug. Exchange rate euro usd 10, the People’s Bank of China said it plans to increase the yuan’s internationalization by seeking more cooperation with other countries and improving the infrastructure needed to support wider use of the yuan.

China’s currency has slumped 2.9 percent since the end of March, the most since the nation unified the official and market rates at the start of 1994, to trade near its lowest level in five years. Dow futures market Losses deepened after the U.K.’s vote to secede from the European Union led to a jump in the dollar and dented the outlook for Chinese exports.

After turmoil in its currency and stock markets in the past year shook investor confidence, China stopped granting quotas for residents to invest overseas and clamped down on illegal fund transfers to restrain capital outflows. Mxn to usd Policy makers are trying to guide the currency lower versus its trading partners as the economy slows while simultaneously damping expectations of faster depreciation. Pound dollar exchange rate live Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Us market futures cnbc warned in a June 29 note that metals investors are concerned China may sharply weaken its exchange rate.

“We see a rising risk that capital outflows could pick up again causing negative headlines and adding to the fragility of current market sentiment,” said Allan von Mehren, Copenhagan-based chief analyst at Danske Bank A/S. Gbp to usd forecast “We expect the depreciation pressure on the Chinese currency to continue over the coming years.”

15-Jun (South China Morning Post) — China’s yuan currency dropped to its lowest in five years against the US dollar on Wednesday morning, with the central bank setting the reference price down ahead of a decision by the US Federal Reserve on interest rates.

Onshore yuan traded at 6.6043 on Wednesday morning, the lowest since January 14, 2011 when it touched 6.6367. Exchange rate pound to dollar history The currency later bounced back to 6.5945 by 11.30am. Binary song The onshore yuan has dropped three days in a row, losing a total of 0.7 per cent this week.

“The PBOC is guiding this path of gradual depreciation with expectations that the US Federal Reserve will start on the road of interest normalisation sooner than later,” said Stephen Innes, senior trader at OANDA Asia Pacific.

29-Apr (FT) — The yen is on track for its biggest weekly gain since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis after the Bank of Japan’s reluctance to fire another easing “bazooka” emboldened traders and raised doubts over the central bank’s ability to reverse the currency’s searing rally this year.

A 4 per cent surge in the currency drove the yen to Y106.92 per dollar, its loftiest level since October 2014, when Haruhiko Kuroda, the governor of the BoJ, shocked financial markets by aggressively expanding a quantitative easing programme designed to lift inflation and quicken economic growth.

Foreign-exchange markets had begun the week primed for further action from a Japanese central bank still grappling with deflation. Python xml to json Analysts at UBS forecast “big easing”, so the decision of Mr Kuroda and his colleagues not to do anything amplified the reaction in the yen.

The lack of action from a central bank which, since the election of Shinzo Abe as Japanese prime minister in late 2012 has built a reputation for bold moves, triggered a 3 per cent leap in the yen on Thursday — its seventh-biggest one-day gain of the past decade.

07-Jan (Reuters) — China allowed the biggest fall in the yuan in five months on Thursday, pressuring regional currencies and sending global stock markets tumbling as investors feared the Asian giant could trigger competitive devaluations from its peers.

China’s stock markets were suspended for the day less than half an hour after the open as a new circuit-breaking mechanism was tripped for the second time this week.

The People’s Bank of China again surprised markets by setting the official midpoint rate on the yuan, also known as the renminbi (RMB), 0.5 percent weaker at 6.5646 per dollar, the lowest since March 2011.

That tracked record losses in the more open offshore market in the currency and was the biggest daily fall since last August, when an abrupt near 2 percent devaluation of the currency also roiled markets.

Dealers, however, said the PBOC had intervened later to reverse a more than 1 percent fall in offshore rates for the yuan after they hit a record low of 6.7600 per dollar.

17-Dec (Bloomberg) — Argentina’s peso tumbled as much as 30 percent as newly inaugurated President Mauricio Macri fulfilled his campaign promise of letting the currency float freely.

Macri’s push for a devaluation was a key part of the economic overhaul he says is needed to lure investment that can jump-start an economy suffering from lackluster growth, inflation estimated at 25 percent and a shortage of dollars. Us stock market cnn money The decline brought the official rate closer in line with where the peso had been trading in unregulated markets.

The move also carries risks, with the plunge potentially leading to skyrocketing consumer prices and a backlash from Argentines who see the value of their savings sink in dollar terms. Binary to octal examples Finance Minister Alfonso Prat-Gay, in announcing the move to end the central bank’s support for the peso and currency controls that limited the ability of Argentines to buy dollars, said Wednesday that the central bank is ready to intervene should declines in the peso spiral out of control. Binary search in c In addition, Argentina expects between $15 billion and $25 billion in inflows over the next month to bolster reserves.

PG View: Think about that for a moment. Binary to decimal conversion method If you had 10,000 pesos in the bank yesterday, you woke up this morning and your savings had only ARD7000 in purchasing power. Euro stock market And that’s not even taking into consideration the 227% decline in the value of the peso over the last 7-years, prior to today’s tanking. Stock market futures after hours It is a shame that the people of Argentina have to suffer such a crisis every 10-years or so. Funny quotes about life Smart Argentines own gold.

03-Dec (WSJ) — While European Central Bank President Mario Draghi expounds on the latest tweaks and twists to ECB policy, Bill Gross has a far less wordy explanation for what the banks are doing.

“Central banks are casinos.” That is the curt definition the Janus Capital money manager gives them in his monthly outlook letter. Verizon troubleshooting number “They print money as if they were manufacturing endless numbers of chips that they’ll never have to redeem.”

The banks in these post-crisis years have been essentially relying on two old gambler strategies, Mr. Baby pregnancy calculator Gross says: the bluff and the “Martingale.” Everybody knows what a bluff if, but the Martingale is a little more obscure (hey, we had to look it up, too). Usd to ntd It’s a strategy of doubling down on the previous bet, no matter whether the previous bet was a winner or a loser. Exchange rate uk to us The idea is that eventually, the odds are that you will win a pot big enough to cover all your bets. Gbp to usd converter Whether or not it actually works is debatable.

…This game can go on for as long as the citizenry retains faith in the bank and the currency, he wrote. The binary system If they lose faith in the practical value of the currency, the game will unravel quickly. Usa today coaches poll “Venezuela, Argentina, and Zimbabwe are modern-day examples. Pound to euro forecast 2016 Germany’s Weimar Republic is a great historical one.”

30-Nov (WSJ) — The International Monetary Fund on Monday is adding the Chinese yuan to the basket of elite currencies comprising its lending reserve, marking a milestone in the country’s ascendancy as a global economic power.

“It’s a milestone in a journey that will include certainly more reforms,” IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said after the board approved the yuan’s inclusion.

The IMF’s move—which won’t become effective until late next year—could help accelerate a mild pickup in international demand for the yuan. Pound vs dollar exchange rate history It confers a measure of international legitimacy to China’s currency as the government starts to liberalize its rigidly controlled exchange rate and financial system.

PG View: When the IMF staff made the recommendation that the yuan be made a reserve currency, USAGOLD’s President and founder Michael Kosares wrote the following:

MK note: The China/IMF linkage translates to a long-term positive for gold. Euro price today in pakistan Back in the late 1990s, the European Union advertised its gold reserves as part of the push to build confidence in the new euro currency, even though it was not directly backed by the metal. Inr to usd exchange rate today At the time, Europe as a whole had about 12,000 tonnes of gold in reserves spread throughout the nation states. Binary to octal China’s acknowledged reserves stand at 1700 tonnes – a fraction of European reserves at the time of euro introduction. Usd to inr conversion rate today In order to build international confidence in the yuan, China will likely continue its current policies with respect to gold, i.e., directing its world-leading gold production into reserves, encouraging its citizenry to own gold, and importing large quantities of bullion to spread among private and quasi-public investors. Fx rate gbp usd All of that puts a bid under the market likely to affect the demand side of the fundamentals’ ledger for a long time to come.

Note 2: Some analysts believe that China is fudging on its reported reserves. Decoding activities I have seen estimates as high as 5000 tonnes, but most estimates settle around the 3000 tonne mark. Famous quotes about family Even at 3000 tonnes, China has a long way to go if it wants to play ball in gold’s major leagues. Binary digit The U.S. Stock futures cnn gold reserve is a little over 8,000 tonnes and collectively the European Union, as mentioned above, holds roughly 12,000 tonnes. Usd to inr graph As much as central bankers downplay gold’s importance in monetary affairs, it is interesting to note that when the prestige and credibility of a currency needs elevation, the shortest distance between two points is the presence of significant national gold reserve.

Once the grease of global growth, international commerce failed to rebound completely from the 2009 recession and now is slowing anew. Gold price forecast today Chinese exports tumbled 5.5 percent in August from a year earlier, while those of the U.S. Cnn premarket futures stocks markets fell 3.5 percent. Aed to usd South Korea and Singapore witnessed double digit declines.

Reflecting such weakness, the World Trade Organization this week cut its forecast for trade this year to 2.8 percent from 3.3 percent. Conversion rate usd to inr It acknowledged its new prediction may be “over optimistic.”

Such rates fall short of the 5 percent average of the past two decades. Used book stores denver Also gone are the 1990s and early 2000s when trade grew twice as fast as economic growth — 2015 is set to be the fourth consecutive year in which the two expand around the same speed.

…if trade does fail to pick up Adam Slater, an economist at Oxford Economics Ltd., predicts continued downward pressure on bond yields and renewed efforts by countries to devalue their way to prosperity.

Just what that would achieve is in in doubt. Binary to decimal The IMF this week suggested a 10 percent cheaper currency can boost exports by an average of 1.5 percent of GDP. Pound to usd conversion rate By contrast, the World Bank recently estimated that falling currencies were only half as effective in increasing exports between 2004 and 2012 as they were in the prior eight years.

With emerging markets increasingly trading with each other it may be “the case that rather than the net outcome being a zero, the overall impact of currency depreciation may actually be a negative-sum game,” HSBC Holdings Plc economists Janet Henry and James Pomeroy said in a report this week.

The BCB said on Wednesday that it will auction $2bn worth of new currency swaps today and tomorrow – in effect restarting a programme that was scrapped earlier this year – after the real plunged more than 2.3 per cent to a new low of R$4.1441 per dollar.

…But the ferocity of the recent sell-off, triggered in part by Standard & Poor’s move this month to downgrade the country to junk and exacerbated by a fast growing domestic political crisis, has spooked even the most battle-harden Brazil watcher.

Despite the size of the swaps programme, analysts are not convinced it will be enough to stablise the real, which has fallen more than 35 per cent against the greenback this year. Usd trend The bulk of this loss has come over the past 8 weeks.

03-Sep (Bloomberg) — After the European Central Bank decided to initiate an asset purchasing program, President Mario Draghi reportedly elected to unwind with a game of chess on his iPad during the plane ride back to Rome.

According to Morgan Stanley’s Marco Spaltro and Jim Caron, Draghi’s choice for a game could not have been more fitting. Usd to nzd exchange rate In a new commentary, the two portfolio managers argue that diverging monetary policies and persistently low levels of inflation mean that central banks are now engaged in a global game of chess.

Moreover, they say, this particular match won’t end in a stalemate. Aed to usd converter Despite concerns that central banks have no moves left, the pair contends that all roads lead to competitive currency devaluations.

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