Elliott wave analysis of the swiss franc – marketwatch php to usd exchange rate


When the Swiss National Bank stepped in to stem the Swiss franc’s rise last year, the USD/CHF posted a low of 0.7085. Followers of Elliott Wave theory would call that level in the Swiss franc a ‘significant low’ and they would start their wave counts from that point.

It has been almost a year since that key event, and today we heard SNB’s Jordan say that the central bank is determined to enforce the franc cap. (see story on Thomson Reuters)

In this article, I will first demonstrate, using several charts of the USD/CHF, that Elliott Wave analysis worked at every juncture. I will then offer you a likely scenario for the future movement in the near term binary to octal. How Elliott Wave analysis uses Fibonacci ratios

One of the most useful tools when we try to analyze charts is the Fibonacci retracement grid. Of all the Fibonacci ratios, the 61.8% retracement works best.

In fact, even if you don’t know how to apply Elliott Waves to your analysis, you will be able to pick up a few points by positioning yourself at the 61.8% level.

Take the USD/CHF, for example usd to inr conversion rate today. The recovery from the 0.7085 low went exactly to 0.9958 and then faltered. That resistance happens to be 61.8% retracement of the prior decline from 1.1735 to 0.7085. This is illustrated in the first USD/CHF chart in the link at the end of this article. How far did the third wave go in USD/CHF?

A second useful Fibonacci projection is the 161.8% ratio famous quotes about family. Typically a third wave will travel this distance. If you look at the second chart of the USD/CHF, you will see that the third wave traveled a distance of exactly 161.8% of the first wave euro price today in pakistan. You will also notice the wave personality of the third wave. It is usually the strongest wave and the steepest also. How corrective waves alternate in complexity

In the USD/CHF charts, you will also observe that the second wave was simple in structure, but the fourth wave was complex us dollar exchange rate to indian rupee today. This follows Elliott Wave principle guidelines that corrective waves alternate in complexity. You will also notice that whereas the second wave was brief, the fourth wave took more time. This is another way of alternation inr to usd exchange rate today. How to anticipate potential end points for the fifth wave

In my book “Five Waves to Financial Freedom” I have explained this is detail. Quite simply, we can measure the distance traveled from the start of the first wave to the end of the third wave, and compute a 61.8% measure. We add this number to the end of the fourth wave in a bull market to get a potential target for the fifth wave binary digit. Sometimes, the fifth wave will finish at a 38.2% measure.

If you look at the third chart of USD/CHF, you will see that it was possible to figure out where the third wave ended by applying this technique to measure the fifth sub wave of the third wave itself. And if you scroll down to the last chart, you will see that the same technique also worked when you apply it to the sub waves of the fifth wave. What to expect now for USD/CHF

We have a key risk event later this week in the form of an ECB announcement pound vs dollar exchange rate history. It will be futile to make a prediction now, but we can anticipate certain reactions. Elliott Wave principle tells us that at least one wave in a five-wave sequence is likely to extend. As wave one and wave three appear to be normally formed, there exists a chance for a fifth wave extension.

For this to happen, the USD/CHF should ideally not trade below a key support that lies at 0.9335. Professional traders would be watching that support, and I urge you, too, should pay attention to what happens there usd to nzd conversion. Any sharp rally higher will indicate a fifth wave extension is under way, and you should position yourself accordingly stock market opening times new years eve. If we trade below 0.9335, then you should watch the speed of any subsequent recovery. If it is slow, then you can consider selling to capture part of the C wave that will likely take us down to below 0.8950.

A thoughtful trader can take low-risk trades by using Elliott Waves. This article showcases how Elliott Waves works in the case of USD/CHF. The charts are all posted in my other blog WaveTimes. Good luck in your trading.