Intraday market thoughts – ashraflaidi. com


Non-farm payrolls rose 227K compared to 175K and that momentarily sent the US dollar higher but mere moments later the market refocused on wages and with earnings up 0.1% m/m compared to 0.3% expected, the US dollar began to slump. Usd to rmb converter That was compounded by a revision to the December wages reading to +0.2% from +0.4%.

The US dollar sank to the lows of the day but was given a reprieve when the Fed’s Williams said he sees some arguments for a March hike and that three hikes this year was a reasonable guess. Dollar exchange rate in rupees The market is pricing just a 30% chance of a March 15 hike and a 39% chance of three hikes.

Williams emphasized data dependence but the question is about which data they will depend on. Gold price in usa today Jobs growth is clearly strong but the Fed has said it wants to see some evidence of wage growth.

Famous quotes on education Some Fed members surely see wage growth as inevitable given the labor market and the prospects for stimulus. Usd to nzd conversion In the past, that would be enough for another hike or two but given the missteps at the Fed in the past 5 years, caution might have set in.

In terms of trading, politics continues to dominate as Brexit and Trump drive GBP and USD. Cnn after market futures The euro will soon enter a more politically-sensitive phase with Marine Le Pen formally launching her campaign on Sunday with a vow to restore ‘monetary sovereignty’. 1 usd to btc She leads in three-way polls and former favourite Fillion embroiled in a scandal for hiring his wife and children with government money.

Once in a while something completely different comes onto the fishing radar or nibbles at the hook. Usd rate today Something you might only see a few times in a lifetime – a whale. Uk to usd There is one circling now. Us dollar to sri lanka rupee exchange rate Of course, there are always whales in the ocean and in the markets. Dollar to euro graph They’re huge trades that last years and the hauls are legendary. Exchange rate euro to dollar forecast Identifying and catching them is a different game than the day-to-day trade but it’s possible.

Trump himself isn’t a whale but he is stirring up the entire ocean of trading and a whale of Moby Dick proportions might be surfacing. Cad vs usd chart It’s the official strong dollar policy of the United States. Futures stock market bloomberg It’s been the policy of the Treasury Department for a generation and markets are vastly underestimating the risk it will be eliminated and the potential rewards of trading it.

This week, Trump came within a stutter of saying he is going to weaken the dollar; or at least go to a currency war with others who have weakened their currencies.

A weak dollar would be a panacea. Put option vs call option It could mean higher stock markets, higher inflation, higher nominal growth, higher wages and more competitiveness. Us dollar exchange rate to indian rupee today Jawboning alone would do much of his work and it could be followed up with a Yellen replacement next year to do the heavy lifting. Hex editor freeware The FX winners in such a war would be the yen and euro. Stock connect morgan stanley Both would struggle to find ammunition to fight back. Us conversion rate An even bigger winner would be gold. Fraction worksheets for kids It might be tomorrow, two months from now or two weeks from now but the weak-dollar whale is one we want to be ready to catch.

And as Ashraf reminds me, FX & politics will shift to the France elections and when/if Republican presidential candidate Francois Fillon officially drops out of the race. Currency converter idr to usd He was long considered as ideally euro-positive due to his stance on free market reforms.

The Fed funds futures pricing for a March 15 hike is at 32.0%. 6 in binary That’s rich given the FOMC statement was largely the same. Text to binary converter There was a notable upgrade on consumer sentiment and it removed some caveats on inflation that had pointed to only a temporary bounce but the bulk of the message was the same. Commodity meaning in urdu The Fed said the balance of risks was neutral and that hikes will be gradual.

The FOMC is clearly in wait-and-see mode on the economy and politics. Download calculator for windows 10 About half the FOMC upgraded forecasts to include fiscal stimulus but that’s as far as they will go. Usd to rmb forecast They want to see some hard evidence from Congress before they proceed and they would surely like a bit less uncertainty from the President as well.

It’s a similar story on the economy. Usd to pound sterling There has been good news but it’s been in sentiment and that’s something the Fed acknowledged. Binary search tree Those high hopes can be unwound quickly unless they’re followed by growth and investment.

A good sign came from the ADP employment report with private jobs up 246K compared to 168K expected. Cnnfn market futures The report has been correlating more closely with non-farm payrolls lately and adds some upside risks to the dollar for late in the week.

The other notable news was from the UK where the first reading on the Article 50 bill passed and the final reading was scheduled for next week. Idr usd The tally was 498 votes to 114 so while the final vote is likely to be closer, it looks as if May will be able to invoke Article 50 before March 31.

From a trading perspective, we were impressed by the bid in the pound through the strong US data and the Brexit news. Us share market futures Some much negativity is priced in and shorts are crowded and taking every opportunity to lighten up. Euro pound exchange rate calculator All eyes turn to Thursday’s BoE inflation report & Carney’s testimony.