Italy increasingly likely to abandon the euro _ zero hedge


• Former prime minister Matteo Renzi stepped down in December after holding a referendum that failed miserably. Usd inr forward rates See Renzi Resigns Following Crushing Referendum Defeat: Beppe Grillo, Marine le Pen, Matteo Salvina Tweets

• Italy’s president, Sergio Mattarella, appointed Paolo Gentiloni as the new prime minister after Renzi resigned. Uk us exchange rate See Meet Paolo Gentiloni, 4th Consecutive Italian Technocrat Appointed Prime Minister: Renzi Not Vanquished Yet

• Beppe Grillo wants elections as soon as possible because he believes he will win, and also because FI leader Silvio Berlusconi cannot run for prime minister until 2018 because of a tax fraud conviction.

The situation for Renzi is actually way worse than it appears.

Xag usd Not only do polls tend to over-play support for PD, the party is about to splinter. Us dollar rate today in indian rupees Via email, Eurointelligence explains …

Our pessimism about the political outlook for Italy was confirmed once more this morning with reports that the PD is now very likely heading for a split – the trigger being disagreement over the election date. Dollar pound exchange rate history Pier Luigi Bersani, Renzi’s predecessor as general secretary of the party, came out strongly against early election in June saying that the PD would be finished as a party if Renzi were to go ahead.

Renzi could assemble a majority in the Italian parliament in favour of a new electoral law and early elections, so this is technically doable. Binary algorithm The question is, at what cost? Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement officially supports early elections, but Renzi probably has a point when he says that another year of political chaos in the PD would drive even more voters to Grillo, whose party thrives on the chaos in the country. Usd inr live In other words, Grillo wins both ways, and the likely design of the electoral law will also be favourable to his party. Nz to usd So much for the theories that there would be a technical stitch-up to keep the Five Star Movement out of power. Funny jokes tagalog The Italian establishment is not sufficiently united to be able to do this.

Massimo D’Alema, Renzi’s fiercest oponent within the PD, says he has done research on the potential electoral support for a party to the left of the PD which could count on 11-14% of the vote. Understanding futures markets kolb pdf With a weak centre-right and a fragmented left, the probability of a victory by the Five Star Movement, perhaps in alliance with other radical forces, must now be considered very high.

Point number 6 is in the works right now. Convert currency And if such an alliance does form and win (both are highly likely in my opinion), then all that is left to stop “Italeave” is fearmongering and points 8 and 9.

Mish may be cheerleading as much as he likes, the chances of Italy dropping the euro are negligible. Free language translator download If ever the country can get its political act together, and a referendum on the euro be approved, the ECB and the EU’d sabotage it. Chicago futures market Bond rates will soar and the government will be replaced by just another technocrat, Monti, version 2.0.

Don’t expect too much of the Dutch elections of March 15, either. 1 usd to danish krone Geert Wilders may prevail and his PVV come out as the biggest party, but he’ll never be allowed to govern, because no one of the others will join him in a coalition. Cdn to usd conversion He’ll be simply overruled, “kaltgestellt”, sent to Coventry. The financial futures market It has been done before, and besides, there’d be demonstrations till Kingdom cometh, never mind the Netherlands being a kingdom, already.

The same goes for Le Pen in France. Commodity futures intraday market price quotes She can boast of 25% of the vote. Euro usd fx It’ll be enough to win the first round, but in the run off she’ll go down in flames, just like last year in departmental elections. Market data live futures quotes She’ll be even worse off than Geert in the Netherlands, because of the differences of the election systems, in France winner takes all, in the Netherlands equal representation.

In the end, 2017 will be a big disappointment for euro rebels, nothing to see here, move along. Dollar to inr rate today On the other hand, the Trump policies may prove so disruptive to EU cohesion, that the whole caboodle will crack up by its own fault lines.