Long range outlooks


A warm front in association with strong low pressure will cut well west of the region will send overrunning icing initially in the interior out ahead of the front Monday night, which will quickly change to rain on Tuesday morning. The financial futures market Rain continues, locally heavy at times into Wednesday AM.

Three main systems to speak of, only the middle of the three are significant. Commodity futures intraday market price quotes The first is a weak system passing to our north on Sunday. Euro usd fx Originally some guidance suggested that this weak wave would be a bit more significant for the area, but no connection was made aloft with the northern stream, and without phasing or partial phasing with the jet, a weak shortwave is all that remains.

Market data live futures quotes A few flurries/snow showers will be possible for mainly the northern half of the coverage area during the day on Sunday, but nothing more than a nuisance is expected.

The 2nd system is a bit more energized and complex, with a warm front pushing through Monday night/early Tuesday, some generally light precipitation will move in advance of this front, leading to some light icing for mainly northern areas initially; as the front moves through Tuesday morning, all precipitation will change to rain showers if it hasn’t already, and then a more moderate and steady rain arrives with the trailing cold front Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Dollar to inr rate today At least a half inch of rain is currently anticipated, and if guidance holds on this idea, we will send advanced text alerts to those subscribed for this system, for both rain, and icing where applicable.

The 3rd system is largely a cold front passage that reinforces cold air (albeit transient) behind it for the middle of the month time period. Dow stock futures cnn Ahead of it will be a mild air surge, and the precipitation type ahead of the front should be generally light rain showers, with a few snow showers/flurries behind the front.

All public/freely available maps will be updated when the threat is imminent for severe weather and snow threats on the weather alerts page throughout the Winter: http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/

The previous outlook last week was cautiously optimistic about a change to a more Wintry pattern with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) reaching phase 8 between February 10-12th. The boxer rebellion What initially began as hope for those who loved the snow and cold, has now come into focus, that cold shots will be transient, with big warm ups in between. Usd to cny exchange rate The MJO phase 8 signal typically promotes blocking over Greenland, a ridge in the western US, and a trough/cold/stormy east. Silver chart 5 year But not always… the problem here is, while phase 8 typically leads to cold/trough in the east, the Polar Vortex (PV) is overwhelming the pattern here, too strong, and too far north. European stock market futures This leads to negating effects of the blocking (-NAO) that you’d typically see over Greenland promoted by a phase 8 MJO. Love quotes for boyfriend Simply stated, no blocking = no cold air/trough in the eastern US. Fraction operations If the PV were weaker and farther south, it would be a different story.

So what we will see as a result of this pattern in the next few weeks will be a lot of ups and downs. Cnn pre stock market futures Transient cold/warm/cold/warm. Free format converter There will still be some transient cold shots, and there also can be some perfectly timed snow event(s), especially for the interior. Binary to words But largely the pattern going forward looks like the opposite of what the Groundhog suggested yesterday. Euro usd converter Not that it should be a shock to anyone really… after the up and down period around the 17th, a more consistent warmer pattern will settle in, and what we think will be an early Spring. Fraction calculator online free At times during transition from cold to the warm, it can be accompanied by a pattern changing Winter storm, and if that were to happen it would be around the 17th or so with that transition. World market futures live Not confident enough in that happening currently to place it as a viable storm signal just yet at this range, and we’ll re-examine next week.

While it is currently listed as a long shot, if the MJO going into phase 8 can slow down the pattern and fast jet created by a strong PV over Siberia, we could see the models change course to a more sustainable cold/stormy pattern from mid-February onward. Equity meaning of There are wildcards that go both ways, and we wanted to mention both possibilities. Binary definition So for now, the period from the 17th onward in the graph above is approached with only moderate confidence.

It largely appears like the culprit this lackluster Winter comes down to a combination of three things… this was outlined in the “what can go wrong” section of the Winter Outlook as the very first bullet point. Exchange rate aus to us Those three things are:

(1) QBO (Quasi-biennial Oscillation) remained too far positive, and didn’t decline as suggested by leading analog years that matched this year well. Inr to usd today In other words, it is an unprecedented year to see the weak La Niña combined with low solar and a ++QBO around +15. Flower quotes tumblr Never happened that I know of. Usd to cad QBO is a measure of the strength of equatorial stratospheric zonal winds, positive is westerly, negative is easterly. Usd to cny If the zonal winds are too strong (outside of +/- 8) then it keeps the Polar Vortex (PV) too strong. Us market futures bloomberg If the PV is too strong, it remains over the North Pole, and is very difficult to displace. Usd to rupee exchange rate today Without it being displaced, cold is locked up over the polar regions, including most of Canada, but has a difficult time reaching the lower latitudes aside from transient cold shots.

(2) Uncooperative Pacific and La Niña base state. Inr to usd This also has a derived effect from the QBO and strong PV. Usd trend 2016 Despite being a weak La Niña headed toward neutral, this winter behaved like a stronger La Niña, where the SE ridge flexes and allows storms to cut more frequently. Convert yen to usd Had the PV been weaker, it could have easily offset this effect, but this base state was allowed to dominate since November with no splits or displacements of the PV since then. Convert aud usd This led to a very fast Pacific jet at times that allowed much of the country to flood with milder air, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) never really was able to get the best tropical forcing away from the Maritime Continent as a general rule.

(3) Taking the words of Michael Molda, one of the moderators on our premium forum, “The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), or complete lack thereof. 1000 usd to eur We have had several years to start this decade with a very beneficial north Pacific warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) promoting/nudging that ridge (PNA+) that helped regardless what the other pattern pieces are. Usd to pound No help this year, at all.”

So lack of Winter really ultimately came down to the ++QBO that didn’t drop as analogs suggested, and this is a new analog that we will be able to study for the years to come. Used book stores springfield mo There is NO WAY to predict the QBO accurately… any forecaster that says the opposite is fooling you and themselves. Taux de change euro dollar There are things like low solar and snow cover in Siberia in early Fall that typically contribute to a weaker QBO, but not always. Usa today newspaper sports This is obviously a year where the QBO didn’t behave as expected, and henceforth, an incorrect Winter forecast. Free language translation I refer to the QBO as the “grim reaper” of outlooks, because largely of its unpredictability, has the ability to take a perfectly good and well researched Winter outlook and shred it apart. Usd to kwd converter As a result of this, it is clear that seasonal outlooks – namely Winter – are a waste of time and energy. Stock market futures news We will still offer our seasonal thoughts in the premium forum, but the public outlooks have been discontinued. Usd to aud conversion We will continue the weekly/public long range outlooks like we have been every Friday, but those outlooks will be limited to 2-3 week leads, outlining the cold/warm periods and precipitation.

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