Still time to make a final call on oil cuts compliance _ gulfnews. com


One month into the implementation of Opec and non-Opec agreement to reduce production and expedite the rebalancing of the oil market, it is perhaps time to review the development so far.

Oil prices are the measure of the effectiveness of the agreement. Stock market cnn futures Remember that the market reacted sharply to the news that there will be an agreement and crude prices jumped by almost $10 (Dh36.70) a barrel inside a few days. Pound euro exchange rate today Just after the agreement with non-Opec producers, the Opec reference basket of crudes tested $53.24 a barrel.

Prices hovered around this level moving in a narrow range mostly influenced by speculation whether the agreement will be implemented in earnest and compliance would be high. Usd jpy news The average basket prices were $43.22, $51.67 and $53.92 a barrel in November, December and January respectively.

In this column on December 4, I said “There is no doubt that the agreement is significant especially if compliance is high and the agreement is extended to the end of 2017.

Silver chart 100 years The market is said to be “broadly optimistic”, but do not expect prices to go beyond $60 a barrel at best.”

Well, we have not tested $60 a barrel yet and News Base Research recently said: “A consensus has emerged that oil prices will remain somewhere in the $50-60 per barrel range over 2017”.

Given the current situation and expectations, I still maintain this position as in my humble opinion there are opposing forces acting to prevent substantial appreciation of prices. Us dollar euro exchange rate history It is too early for major forecasters such as Opec and IEA to report on the level of production of individual participants in the agreement.

However, a Reuter’s survey showed that crude oil production from the 11 Opec members averaged 30.01 million barrels per day (mbd) in January, versus 31.17 mbd in December. Pound sterling to us dollar exchange rate It concluded that compliance is about 82 per cent while petro-Logistics estimates a reduction of only 0.9-mbd and compliance of 75 per cent.

We have to wait for the Opec Secretariat report on January production and also the report of the Ministerial Monitoring Committee, who will report on Opec and non-Opec production. Exchange rate usd to idr Judging by previous experience, the first month of an agreement is often not a good measure for compliance.

The Energy Information Administration reported that US production has risen by 6.3 per cent since July to almost 9 mbd now and is expected at 9.3 mbd in 2018. The millionaire next door summary Current prices are encouraging this trend but the reduction in cost and improvement in well productivity are playing their roles.

Active rigs have persistently risen since the low of 316 in May 2016 to just over 700 in early January. Exchange rate to usd The majority of this increase is in shale oilfields and the small operators there are planning more investment. Equity meaning in tagalog However, it is believed that shale operators are now more interested in productivity and profits rather than just raising volume.

Nigerian production can also pick up steam once the violence in the producing regions is controlled. 1 usd to ngn black market Iran may not be satisfied with the 90,000 barrels a day increase in is production allowed by the agreement. 1 hkd to usd Rosneft, the largest producer in Russia, hasn’t come out with a positive statement about the agreement and may not cut as much as Russia undertook.

But the stark differences between Opec and IEA forecasts is confusing … Us dollar to canadian dollar chart and for a long time not as much as it is in this month’s market reports of both organisations. Us stock futures cnn While both organisations agree about the general direction of market fundamentals they differ on the timing and volumes.

Both organisations work from more or less the same data bases and regular meetings between them are common. Binary to decimal converter Therefore, a discussion of this issue should be on the table.