The riddle _ merchant weekend report _ gold, silver, dollar, markets _ 14th jan 2017 _ chamber of merchants _ the merchant’s exclusive asx insights


The gold miners from the United States are in a binary trade right now. Convert inr to usd There is only up, there is only down. Usd in euro rechner If the U.S Dollar drops, their gold price sky rockets. Idr to usd converter If the dollar bounces, then the USD gold price will retrace to support.

However, for myself, I trade the Australian commodities sector. Usd to rmb chart Currently I’m focusing on the precious metals end of the ASX neighbourhood. Us stock market futures real time I have many times espoused the virtues of the exchange rate buffer for safety’s sake: even if the dollar rallies further, then the the exchange rate will keep the Australian gold price around $1600-$1650.

Binary code translator to english The only issue is that instead of a buffer, the exchange is starting to function as a barrier in the last 6 days or so, preventing the AUD gold price to appreciate. Us dollar exchange rate indian rupee This is giving gold miners the necessary space for what has been, so far, a very minor correction.

This is slightly lower than where we were Friday which may cause some market participants to panic and sell off on Monday morning, especially with the threat of a reversing gold rally.

I exited my stocks within 5% of the peak and have watched the momentum and price recede across the board. What are stock market futures I would like to see a deeper correction come Monday, however, if it happens it may be temporary.

Well currently, it almost makes no difference if the price of gold increases or decreases, the AUD gold price is staying stagnant. Binary words If this continues, miners would give back their excessive gains and find a new equilibrium at support.

However, a break above $1207 would very easily cause a one day rally of $30-$60 in the USD price of gold (over and above the movement in the dollar) which, if the exchange remains roughly the same, would return the AUD gold price to around $1650-$1700.

As a trader in Australian gold stocks, I would want the Australian dollar to decline relative to the U.S Dollar, while I would want Gold to appreciate relative to the U.S Dollar.

b) If the U.S Dollar declines enough to create a squeeze around $1207 which would push prices close to $1240-$1280 within a day or so of crossing the threshhold.

The U.S Dollar has been rallying, although it is quite clear that funds have been moving out of the U.S Dollar for some time now. Ucsd my chart I have shown that tima and again in my previous posts.

However, there may be a push on the dollar if President Elect Donald Trump tweets something that is pro-market/pro-dollar. Text to number converter Any policies that would strengthen (or at least suggest to) improve the U.S economy, it will be bullish for the U.S Dollar.

We are also seeing signs of inflation pick up, which is being underreported since they revised the measurement of inflation around 2011. 1 usd to ils Crude oil is double the low of last year which was around $26 from memory. Exchange rate usd inr This is bound to show up in costs and final prices of business activities across the board. Decode binary If inflation continues to rise, we may see the market positioning in expectation of the Fed raising rates to curb inflation.

The issue here is, the indicators for growth are stagnating or are negative. Usd mxn This means that inflation is showing up but growth is not…. Python example script aka Stagflation. 1 usd to inr in xoom If this trend continues, then gold has a date with $1500+ USD because the Fed will not raise rates in a slowing economy. Binary translator They’d rather allow higher inflation in the hope of spurring growth (which is laughable).

So if the current reporting trend continues, gold will not only confirm its bull market trend, but it will become intensely profitable to invest in anything gold / silver related over the next year/3 years. 100 usd to eur Australian Dollar

If the Dollar and gold continue to move in tandem, then we really need to cosider the breakout factor, the Australian Dollar which will determine the profitability of Australian miners’ exports.

The rally has lasted for a week now on the premise of U.S Dollar weakness. 99 usd However, does the Australian dollar have the fundamentals to remain this high or even higher?

Monday’s inflation indicator will have minimal effect, but Tuesday and Thursday will reveal Motor sales and Home loans. Usd nzd exchange rate If those numbers disappoint (which I think they will) the market will start to realise that the next RBA interest rate will have to be a cut (they should have cut weekes ago).

Additionally, if the vitals of the economy in Australia start to wane, one could expect a lack of confidence in all things Australian with regard to busines and consumer confidence.

I expect the the Australian dollar to lose it’s lustre this week, which, all things being equal, should be good for our miners. Fundamentals of futures and options markets pdf 8th The miners have partially lost some momentum on the Aussie strength, however, come the end of the week I place a high probability on the AUD being weaker in comparison to U.S Dollar, regardless of the strength or weakness of the U.S Dollar Index itself.

Additionally, China’s GDP and retail figures, if reporting weak will help the AUD down the hill. Famous quotes by famous people I cannot tell whether China’s numbers will be good or bad. Eur usd rate I believe they should be weak, but one never knows. Euro to inr chart Volatile weak for sure for the AUD. Eu to usd Bonds

You see, in the above Bond Yield chart, it appears that the yields have rebounded, meaning the bond market may not be very healthy. Dollar vs rupee exchange rate today If the yield does in fact rebound, then it means that the financial market and all the credit in the world related to the USA will become untenable. Usd to inr exchange rate history This included mortgages etc…

What I’m saying, is that if the Bond market tanks with sky rocketing yields, we’re looking at another financial crises. Exchange rate ksh to usd The Fed, which is threatened by Trump’s presidency is the only entity which has kep the bond market in tact. Gender roles in society today In addition, they’re the only entity which has been keeping a full blown crisis, which we should have had in 2008, at bay.

Is this the case right now? No. Exchange rate usd eur We’re not there yet… But I have an inkling that there is an issue looming and the general stock market will certainly not be remaining near record highs if bond yields continue to rise.

I expect weakness in the miners this week. Convert cad to usd If that weakness shows itself, I will be entering my positions which I expect around Tuesday/Wednesday this week. Gender inequality research paper Monday the US market is closed, which means there will be low volume commodities trading. Pound dollar exchange rate today Additionally, there are gold options expiry on the 20th Jan ( Trumps inauguration day) which very often causes some weakness in the gold market, temporarily.

I trade in Canadian / South American gold and silver stocks (my cash is located over there). How does the oil futures market work I sold out 90% last week after the recent run up and am now sitting in USD. Pound usd forecast See you’re looking at possibly entering back into the Aus miners next week if we see more of a correction. Eur usd candlestick chart Are you looking for just weakness in the Aussie miners, or you think there might be weakness across the mining sector internationally with possibly gold coming off? I guess the question is whether this is a dead-cat bounce, or just another bear fake in a confirmed bull market rally is what is occupying my mind mostly – if I wasn’t concerned about a big dump (through gold actually being in a bear market, or sudden economic correction more broadly) I would probably just leave my cash in the gold miners and ride through any temporary weakness for the most part (while taking advantage of trading opportunities with say 30% of my holding, but not 100% if you know what I mean). Usd to malawi kwacha I just really want to avoid a 2 day 40% wipe-out – as I know can happen with the PM’s! Reply