Weekly corn review farm futures 1000 usd to eur


While it’s too early to call a bottom in the corn market, chances for a turnaround are improving xau usd forecast today. The outlook could become clearer after USDA updates its forecast of production, supply and demand Sept. 12.

A year ago the market put in its low as September went into delivery. The crop got a little smaller when all was said and done and demand improved a little too. Eventually growers got a shot to sell inventory for a profit.

Most years lows come later, on average in early October picture format converter. That pattern could prevail again this year with a bearish report. Even bearish outside market influences like a broad-based commodity downturn or Wall Street selloff could be enough to press grain prices lower.

Right now evidence points to a friendly report, but that’s what we thought headed into the Aug. 10 update, when USDA put yields at 169.5 bpa for a 14.2 billion bushel crop that was bigger than expected.

I’ve raised my forecast for yields to 167.8 bpa, which reflects the weather model that’s been the most accurate over the past decade usd to inr history. Crop ratings point lower than that while Vegetation Health Index maps are a little higher yet.

Projected ending stocks should tighten a bit more due to lower beginning supplies Sept. 1. Export inspections, which cover the entire 2016 crop marketing year now, and official Census numbers, which are through July, suggest USDA is significantly too low on its forecast for demand cad to usd converter. Weaker ethanol usage will cut into some of the gains, but it appears the amount of corn left over las week was more than 40 million bushels less than the government forecast.

Combined together, lower production and carryin could cut projected 2017 crop supplies a year for now by 200 million bushels. Ending stocks would still be above 2 billion bushels, but higher prices might be needed to lure the crop out of storage once it’s tucked away.

History also provides some friendlier clues famous quotes about life. In years with a similar ratio of stocks-to-usage, years with weak basis tended to see strong returns from storage. New crop bids remain weak most places and carry around 26 cents from December to July provides further incentive for the crop to get tucked away tight.

Those following our recommendations priced 50% of expected production basis July 2018 futures or HTAs at an average of $4.165 after proceeds from options transactions binary editor. With average production costs around $3.80 a bushel depending on yield, that’s getting closer to a profit if basis can strengthen into spring.

I’ve also put out my first forecast for 2018 prices based on results of our recent survey of planting intentions. The 2.1% increase in acreage combined with higher yields could boost production beyond 14.6 billion bushels, adding to the nation’s surplus british pound historical exchange rate. With the average cost of production around $3.80 for next year, prices are starting to move closer to hedging opportunities. Sign at https://circulation.farmprogress.com/publications.aspx for our free email newsletter Farm Futures Daily to receive specific sale recommendations.

For the complete version of this outlook, including supply and demand tables and graphics, along with price charts, click the “Download” button below.

Senior Editor Bryce Knorr first joined Farm Futures Magazine in 1987 hex to binary converter. In addition to analyzing and writing about the commodity markets, he is a former futures introducing broker and is a registered Commodity Trading Adviser. He conducts Farm Futures exclusive surveys on acreage, production and management issues and is one of the analysts regularly contracted by business wire services before major USDA crop reports 1 usd to sgd. Besides the Morning Call on www.FarmFutures.com he writes weekly reviews for corn, soybeans, and wheat that include selling price targets, charts and seasonal trends stock market futures charts. His other weekly reviews on corn farming, basis, energy, fertilizer and financial markets feature price forecasts for key crop inputs. A journalist with 38 years of experience, he received the Master Writers Award from the American Agricultural Editors Association.

For more corn news, corn crop scouting information and corn diseases to watch for, follow Tom Bechman’s column, Corn Illustrated Weekly , published every Tuesday.

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